18+· Editorial opinion & analysis — never an instruction to stake · BeGambleAware.org · GamStop

Every runner, priced properly.

We take every bookmaker’s price for every runner, strip out the margin they build in, and work out what each horse is really worth. Then we compare that to the best price you can actually get. Where the best price beats our price, there is value — and we show you which bookmaker has it.

35Races priced
326Runners
5Meetings
13Bookmakers checked
17Worth a bet
  1. What we make it— what the horse is really worth, once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out.
  2. Best price you can get — the biggest price on offer today, and which bookmaker has it.
  3. Better than fair — how much bigger that price is than ours. Above our bar we say it is worth a bet; below it, we say why not, in plain words.
2:08BeverleySeason Finale Is Next Tuesday Selling Handicap Stakes11 runners
We think the winner isGreat Blasket5/1Bookmakers prefer Austrian Theory
  • Great Blasket
    James Owen4 from 33 (12%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationJason Hart11 from 46 (24%) vs a 10% norm — almost certainly real
    What we make it5/116.4% chance of winning
    Best price out there11/2Hollywood Bets
    Better than fair+6.9%priced well, but see below

    We make this a 16.4% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price.

  • Austrian Theory
    Tim Easterby10 from 89 (11%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationDavid Allan5 from 41 (12%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it5/116.4% chance of winning
    Best price out there9/2Matchbook
    Worse than fair-12.9%no value

    We make this a 16.4% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 12.9% shorter than it should be.

  • Cosmos Raj
    David O'Meara5 from 49 (10%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationDaniel Tudhope5 from 39 (13%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it5/116.4% chance of winning
    Best price out there9/2Hollywood Bets
    Worse than fair-9.6%no value

    We make this a 16.4% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 9.6% shorter than it should be.

  • Ohara
    Eve Johnson Houghton2 from 26 (8%) — at or below the 10% normClifford Lee4 from 41 (10%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it17/210.6% chance of winning
    Best price out there6/1Paddy Power
    Worse than fair-26.0%no value

    We make this a 10.6% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 26.0% shorter than it should be.

  • Mao Shang Wong
    David O'Meara5 from 49 (10%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationConor Whiteley(5)
    What we make it9/19.9% chance of winning
    Best price out there13/2Betfair Exchange
    Worse than fair-25.0%no value

    We make this a 9.9% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 25.0% shorter than it should be.

  • Bearwith
    Harriet Bethell6 runners in 14 days — too few to readTom Kiely-Marshall(5)
    What we make it10/18.7% chance of winning
    Best price out there8/1Matchbook
    Worse than fair-19.9%no value

    We make this a 8.7% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 19.9% shorter than it should be.

  • Shimmering Sands
    Michael & David Easterby3 from 34 (9%) — at or below the 10% normJoanna Mason2 from 32 (6%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it16/16.2% chance of winning
    Best price out there12/1Betfair Exchange
    Worse than fair-19.8%no value

    We make this a 6.2% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 19.8% shorter than it should be.

  • Dr Rio
    Declan Carroll2 from 18 (11%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationZak Wheatley2 from 14 (14%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it16/15.7% chance of winning
    Best price out there14/1Matchbook
    Worse than fair-17.5%no value

    We make this a 5.7% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 17.5% shorter than it should be.

  • Freddy Robinson
    Brian Ellison2 from 26 (8%) — at or below the 10% normConnor Beasley9 from 43 (21%) vs a 10% norm — very likely real
    What we make it20/14.9% chance of winning
    Best price out there18/1Betfair Exchange
    Worse than fair-8.8%no value

    We make this a 4.9% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 8.8% shorter than it should be.

  • Kitsune Power
    Tim Easterby10 from 89 (11%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationCam Hardie2 from 30 (7%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it40/12.5% chance of winning
    Best price out there33/1Matchbook
    Worse than fair-13.3%no value

    We make this a 2.5% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 13.3% shorter than it should be.

  • Hunterian
    Charlie Johnston4 from 37 (11%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationAndrew Mullen2 from 15 (13%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it40/12.2% chance of winning
    Best price out there40/1Hollywood Bets
    Worse than fair-10.6%no value

    We make this a 2.2% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 10.6% shorter than it should be.

2:43BeverleyYoung Guns Nursery Handicap Stakes6 runners
We think the winner isPrince Kameo2/1The bookmakers agree
  • Prince Kameo
    Sir Mark Prescott Bt4 from 17 (24%) vs a 10% norm — promising, not provenLuke Morris6 from 49 (12%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it2/133.3% chance of winning
    Best price out there2/1Hollywood Bets
    Worse than fair-0.2%no value

    Even at the best price available, it is 0.2% shorter than it should be.

  • High Calibre
    Richard Hannon2 from 50 (4%) — at or below the 10% normAlec Voikhansky0 from 15 (0%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it4/120.8% chance of winning
    Best price out there7/2Betfair Exchange
    Worse than fair-2.2%no value

    Even at the best price available, it is 2.2% shorter than it should be.

  • Emerald Bay
    George Scott2 from 13 (15%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationP. J. McDonald2 runners in 14 days — too few to read
    What we make it9/218.5% chance of winning
    Best price out there4/1Betfair Exchange
    Worse than fair-5.7%no value

    Even at the best price available, it is 5.7% shorter than it should be.

  • Court Legend
    Michael & David Easterby3 from 34 (9%) — at or below the 10% normJoanna Mason2 from 32 (6%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it5/116.6% chance of winning
    Best price out there5/1Matchbook
    Better than fair+3.2%priced well, but see below

    We make this a 16.6% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price.

  • Kigali
    Ollie Sangster3 from 19 (16%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variationDaniel Tudhope5 from 39 (13%) vs a 10% norm — within normal variation
    What we make it14/16.4% chance of winning
    Best price out there16/1Betfair Exchange
    Better than fair+12.0%priced well, but see below

    We make this a 6.4% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price.

  • Northern Viola
    John & Sean Quinn1 from 12 (8%) — at or below the 10% normJames Sullivan1 from 20 (5%) — at or below the 10% norm
    What we make it22/14.4% chance of winning
    Best price out there20/1Matchbook
    Worse than fair-3.6%no value

    We make this a 4.4% chance of winning. We don't back anything we rate under 18%, however big the price. Even at the best price available, it is 3.6% shorter than it should be.

This is the free preview. Full Access opens every race at every meeting, every day.

🔒 FULL ACCESS
+33 more behind Full Access

You're seeing the free preview. We rate every runner in every race at every UK and Irish meeting, every day — what we make it, the best price on offer, who is paying it, and the reason it is not a bet when it isn't. Unlock every race at every meeting, plus the NAP, the Value Radar and the market Movers — for £9.99/month. Cancel anytime.

Already subscribed? Restore access

Analysis, never an instruction. Prices move and past results do not predict future ones. Please gamble responsibly — 18+, begambleaware.org.