Model vs market, explained.
1 · Every price, every book
Each morning the engine pulls every runner's price from 30+ bookmakers and exchanges — the whole card, not a shortlist.
2 · Strip the vig
A bookmaker's odds contain margin. We remove it ("de-vigging") to get the market's true implied probability for every horse.
3 · Fair odds vs best price
The model's de-vigged consensus becomes a fair price per runner. Where the best available price is meaningfully bigger than fair, that gap is the value edge — the one number we publish per horse.
4 · The Ledger settles everything
Every published call is logged at 1 unit level stakes and settled against official results the same night. Wins, losses, drawdowns — all public, forever. The board doesn't lie.
Reading our cards
⚑ — widest model-vs-market gap in the race (the race's value flag)
★★★★★ — edge rating: 1★ under 2%, 3★ from 4%, 5★ at 8%+
7/2 → 9/2 — model fair price → best available price
+6.2% — the edge: how far the best price sits the right side of fair
u — units. Every call is 1u level stakes on the public Ledger.
The Form Guide publishes editorial statistical analysis. It is not betting advice, and no outcome is ever guaranteed. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org